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What happens when:

  • Affordability improves (thanks to three successive interest rate drops)?

  • Vacancy rates reach a five year low?

  • Construction approvals fall up to 70% (reducing future supply)?

  • Population growth reaches the highest level in ten years?

  • Improving market sentiment?

Well, forecasters lick their lips and begin to predict growth with circumstances like this as these are all key factors influencing a strong outlook for the Brisbane apartment market.

In November 2019 CoreLogic and Moody's Analytics released their 2019 third quarter housing forecast report. The report projects a significant uptick across the east coast capital city residential markets, following the largest correction in 40 years.

Despite faring better than most cities over 2019, Brisbane is still only now exiting the correction. Higher supply in the Brisbane apartment market constrained growth over 2014 – 2017, particularly in the inner city suburbs.

Moody's Analytics is forecasting apartment growth in Brisbane at 5.4% in 2020 and 6.5% in 2021 (see below graph).

With market conditions improving, I expect that we will see continued bullish forecasts making their way into the media. As always, I encourage my clients to focus on the fundamental numbers behind the market, and not the headlines.

Source: Moody's Analytics

Adam Duffy - Partner at Meridian Australia

P: (02) 9939 3249


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