No Rate Cut (Yet): What It Means for Property Investors
- Meridian Australia
- Jul 8
- 3 min read

Despite growing speculation and improving inflation data, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has held the official cash rate steady at 3.85% in July. While some had tipped a cut, the decision to hold suggests the RBA is still treading cautiously — even as broader economic indicators point to easing conditions.
According to Brad Wearne, Director at Meridian Australia, this hold decision is “not a pause in momentum — it’s a pause for confirmation.”
“Inflation is tracking back into the target range, and economic growth remains modest,” Brad says. “The RBA is watching carefully, but we believe the next move is still more likely to be down than up — it’s a matter of timing.”
A Market Poised to Move
Lower interest rates improve borrowing capacity and serviceability, giving investors greater flexibility and confidence. But while that’s positive news, it raises an important question:
Will this add more pressure to an already supply-constrained market?
The short answer: yes.
Government incentives and rate relief alone won’t solve Australia’s structural undersupply. In fact, they may accelerate competition for quality stock.
“Injecting more buyers into the market without addressing supply is like fuelling a fire,” Brad explains. “Demand lifts quickly, but stock remains tight — especially in high-growth areas.”
Rate Cuts Are Coming — Just Not Yet
Markets are still pricing in a potential 25 basis point rate cut before the end of 2025, with the cash rate forecast to settle between 3.35% and 3.60%. If realised, that shift would mark a formal end to the rate-hiking cycle and signal a new chapter for property investors.
“We’re already seeing lenders sharpen fixed-rate offers and increased borrower activity,” Brad explains. “Even without a cut, the market is starting to move.”

What a Holding Pattern Means for Investors
While a rate hold doesn’t boost borrowing power immediately, it does provide confidence and clarity. And with inflation now sitting within the RBA’s 2–3% target range, it’s only a matter of time before the rate relief arrives.
Key factors at play:
CPI for May came in at 2.1%, with underlying inflation at 2.4% — the lowest since 2021.
Consumer sentiment has lifted for a second consecutive month.
Fixed rates are trending lower, anticipating easing from the RBA in the coming quarters.
“This is the inflection point,” Brad says. “Smart investors know markets often turn before rates do. The early signs are here — sentiment is improving, buyers are circling, and pre-approvals are on the rise.”

Supply: The Ongoing Challenge
Regardless of interest rate movements, supply remains the biggest pressure point. While the Federal Government remains committed to delivering 1.2 million homes over five years, the pace of delivery continues to fall short.
“We’re seeing delays in planning approvals, labour shortages, and a slowdown in dwelling completions,” says James Duffy, Partner at Meridian Australia. “The gap between demand and delivery is only growing.”
Add to this 1.8 million projected new migrants over the next five years, and the pressure on rental markets — especially in Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane — is set to intensify.
Timing the Market vs. Time in the Market
While some buyers wait for a formal rate cut, many investors are already stepping in.
“The opportunity doesn’t begin with a rate cut — it begins when confidence returns,” James explains. “And that’s exactly what we’re starting to see now.”
National property prices rose again in June, and if history is any guide, more buyers will return the moment the RBA shifts policy. Acting early offers a rare window to buy before renewed competition drives prices up further.
Ready to Position Yourself Ahead of the Curve?
At Meridian Australia, our research team is already tracking high-performing suburbs with strong fundamentals: population growth, infrastructure pipelines, and yield resilience.
“Investing ahead of the curve is how you unlock long-term growth,” Brad says. “If you wait for the media headlines, you’re already behind.”
Let’s Talk Strategy
Whether you’re buying your first investment or adding to your portfolio, now is the time to act with strategy and clarity.
Book a complimentary consultation with a Meridian Property Investment Consultant and secure your position before the market accelerates.
Commentaires